Aggies and Golden Bears take Holiday in San Diego

NCAA Football Betting Lines

12/24/2006 - San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Pacific Life Holiday Bowl will pit the 21st-ranked Texas A&M Aggies of the Big 12 against the 20th-ranked California Golden Bears of the Pac-10 in San Diego.

Texas A&M finished the season with a 9-3 overall record, including a 5-3 mark in the always-tough Big 12 Conference. While the Aggies have been notoriously tough to beat at home, they have played their best football away from Kyle Field this season. In fact, they are attempting to become the first Aggie squad since the 1939 national championship team to post an unblemished record away from Kyle Field, as they are currently 4-0 on the road and 1-0 in neutral site games. Texas A&M is 13-15 all-time in bowl games, and it hopes for a better finish than the 38-7 loss that it suffered in the 2005 Cotton Bowl to Tennessee.

California also enters this game with a 9-3 overall mark, and it finished 7-2 in Pac-10 play to capture a share of the league title. Considering that the Golden Bears last won a share of the title back in 1975, Jeff Tedford has clearly elevated the program to a level it normally doesn't reach. California is set to participate in a bowl game for the fourth consecutive season, the first time the program has ever accomplished that feat.

California and Texas A&M have split their only two series meetings, and the most recent matchup occurred in 1983.

Texas A&M is a formidable offensive team that is averaging 29.3 ppg and 401.4 total ypg. There is no question that the ground attack is the driving force behind the success of the unit, as the Aggies have racked up 32 rushing touchdowns while averaging 210.5 ypg on 5.0 ypc. Three players have combined to carry the ball 411 times for well over 2,000 yards, and the backfield by committee approach has kept the runners fresh and defenses off balance. Mike Goodson leads the way with 785 rushing yards and a tremendous average of 6.9 ypc. Jorvorskie Lane is the club's short-yardage back, and he has scored a staggering total of 19 rushing touchdowns. The third member of the trio is Stephen McGee, who has run for 635 yards. McGee, the team's starting quarterback, has also passed for 2,118 yards and 11 touchdowns with only two interceptions. There isn't a top-notch receiver in the fold, but McGee does a good job of spreading the ball around.

Opponents are only scoring 18.5 ppg against Texas A&M, which is yielding 309.8 total ypg to its foes. The Aggies sent a major message to the college football world, and to California in particularly, when it limited a normally-explosive Texas team to seven points in the regular season finale on November 24th. With 21 takeaways and 17 sacks, Texas A&M isn't one of the best big-play defenses participating in this bowl season, but the unit is solid against both the run and the pass. One of the most impressive stats worth mentioning is that the Aggies are permitting their opponents to make good on only 29 percent of their third down conversion attempts. Justin Warren is the leading tackler for Texas A&M, as he has made 90 total stops. Keep and eye on Chris Harrington, as he has registered 11.5 TFLs, including 7.5 sacks this year.

California is not short on offensive weapons, and the most dangerous of all is tailback Marshawn Lynch. Recently named the Pac-10 Offensive Player of the Year, Lynch has rushed for 1,245 yards and has scored 13 touchdowns. He is just the second player in Cal history with two 1,000-yard seasons, and he is the fourth to go over 3,000 rushing yards in a career. DeSean Jackson steals many headlines as well, both as a receiver and a returner. Jackson has scored 13 touchdowns to tie Lynch, and he is first in the nation in punt return average and has taken four punts into the end zone. As a receiver, Jackson has made 54 grabs for 979 yards and nine scores, and he is a threat to go the distance every time he touches the ball. The man entrusted with getting the ball to Lynch and Jackson is quarterback Nate Longshore, who has completed 58.9 percent of his passes for 2,786 yards with 23 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Clearly, this California offense is loaded. The team averages 31.8 ppg and 410.6 total ypg.

While Lynch and Jackson are the stars of the offense and special teams, Daymeion Hughes is the man on defense. The senior cornerback leads the team and is tied for third nationally in interceptions with eight. He has registered 11 pass break-ups and is second on the team in tackles with 67. Desmond Bishop is another All-Pac-10 performer who has recorded 114 tackles, 47 more than anyone else on the team. He has posted 14 TFLs and picked off three passes as well. The Golden Bears are limiting opponents to 20.1 ppg on 367.7 total ypg. The run defense has been strong, yielding only 3.7 yards per carry. While Cal has registered a high total of 20 interceptions, the team is giving up 13.4 yards per pass completion, so there have been some big plays made through the air.

This game features a confident Texas A&M team coming off a win over Texas and an explosive California club which earned its first taste of the conference crown in a couple of decades. Expect this one to be close for the most part, although the Golden Bears have to get the slight edge because of the presence of Lynch and Jackson.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: California 31, Texas A&M 20

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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